In shortThe problem with point estimates / Intervals, not guesses / Update often / Decide with the range.
1. The problem with point estimates
A single number hides uncertainty. "100 eggs" sounds precise; "80 to 120 eggs" sounds true.
2. Intervals, not guesses
HatchRate returns ranges and shows the confidence level. Bigger ranges mean more uncertainty and more honest planning.
3. Update often
A forecast that is not updated is a rumor. Re-run it whenever new data arrives.
4. Decide with the range
Plan for the low end, celebrate the high end, and set your budget so nobody is surprised.
Written by Beatrice Featherstone, Head of Site Reliability. Disagree? Tell us. We read every message, usually before the second coffee.